Mahanth S. Joishy is Editor of usindiamonitor

Editor’s Note: I spent happy formative years in the Middle East and have great affection for the region, most notably Saudi Arabia (chronicled here), the United Arab Emirates (chronicled here), Egypt, and Turkey. Like everywhere else these places are quite imperfect. However, my connection to the Arab World compelled me to draft this ambitious plan for Middle East peace at just the moment when this dream slips as far from reality as ever.

Sometimes it feels like there are no good answers to the world’s most intractable problems. On top of that there’s no guarantee that the least worst option will even be the least worst option, as unanticipated developments lay waste to the best-laid plans of mice and men. The Middle East is descending with unstoppable momentum into prolonged war. The latest Israel-Palestine conflict is a beastly hydra with the potential to dwarf in scale all previous wars fought in or around Israel since its founding, unless key external stakeholders somehow manage to force deescalation. That’s a biblical scale challenge at best, as some foreign forces are also fanning the flames.

So far we have scant evidence of success from the frantic efforts to deescalate by the international community, including the UN. All signs point toward escalation and lasting damage to the prospects for peace. Despite the grim odds, those who have the guts to figure a way out of this mess should be encouraged to share their ideas. We cannot let the terrorists win. Nihilism and escalating bloodshed is exactly what they want. We should hope the brainstorming and dialogue start immediately in numerous forums. Outlined below is my original roadmap to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict and win a lasting peace in the Middle East. Due to its controversial nature this is the first time I have ever dared to wade into the Israel-Palestine maelstrom, just as the region seethes with violence, hatred and tribalism. My terrifying health diagnosis in 2023 convinced me that it was time.

Unspeakably brutal violence suddenly unfurled on citizens of Southern Israel and foreign visitors starting October 7, and a gushing spigot of Palestinian blood has spilled in the days following the surprise incursions from the Gaza Strip deep into Israeli territory by a large number of trained Hamas terror cells. The inhumane Hamas blitzkrieg operation coined Al Aqsa Flood was shocking in its sophistication, scale, and savagery. Equally shocking was how utterly, inexplicably, and embarrassingly in the dark Israeli intelligence was before and during the attack. Due to this lapse Israel had zero chance of thwarting the attack despite vaunted spy agencies including Mossad and Shin Bet that are widely considered top notch globally for both signals intelligence and human intelligence in a dangerous neighborhood. Even worse, the initial Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) response was largely too weak and too late to protect many citizens against the ragtag bands of marauders that breached the border at different points via land, air, and sea. But there will be ample time for intelligence hearings and postmortems and political backlashes later.

On the other side planning for Al Aqsa Flood must have taken months, if not years, involving well over 1,000 militants. Some 200 Israeli and Western hostages were dragged into Gaza in cold-blooded fashion. Simultaneously thousands of missiles rained down on Israel from Hamas hideouts in various nooks and crannies of Gaza. Before the world had time to even start processing what was going on, Hamas had already kidnaped, tortured, injured, and/or massacred an unprecedented number of civilians and soldiers. Notably 260 youth attending a desert dance party (for peace of all things) were executed by the gun, enabled by suspiciously lax security arrangements. Israel predictably responded with overwhelming firepower on Gaza as Prime Minister Netanyahu activated a wartime emergency cabinet made up of political rivals in a show of solidarity across party lines. Thousands in Gaza and the West Bank including numerous children are being killed or injured in the counter-attack, code-named Operation Iron Swords by Israel. Hamas continues to launch missiles into Israeli territory, without discriminating between civilian and military areas. On and on and on it goes.

For the purpose of forging a peace strategy it is not productive to pick a team or debate which tribe is more to blame. We’ll aim here for neutrality, with a caveat. I am firmly on the side of the hurting civilian populations on both sides who don’t deserve this mess. The more crucial divide is between citizens and politicians. It’s not the common folk but the leadership, or glaring lack thereof in both Israel and Gaza who are most to blame for the current cycle of violence. With innocent civilian casualties piling up well into the thousands on either side of the Gaza/Israel border, both camps have already lost regardless of what transpires from here, and the souls of both Israel and Palestine have been stained red. There is no coming back from the events of the last two weeks. The best we can hope for is that when the dust finally settles Israelis, Palestinians, and Arabs with outside help can somehow collectively establish and implement a plan for lasting peace, which should have taken place decades ago.

There will be much work to get there, and years will be needed. Many vehement disagreements will have to be settled. It’s not ideal timing for a nation in the midst of other big challenges both at home and abroad, but the United States is the last best hope to take control of this crisis rapidly spiraling out of control with no end in sight. Only America has the combination of resources, power, and moral standing to take the lead. Probably nobody else can cajole and coerce the players in the region to initiate a lasting peace after the barrages of bullets, bombs, and missiles ultimately cease and the time comes to pick up the pieces wherever Israel and Palestine land in the aftermath. October 7 was a stark wakeup call for all, America included. Such a terrible scenario should never, ever be allowed to play out again, for the sake of both societies and the wider neighborhood. Eliminating the threat means a lot more violence. Things look to get worse before they get better, but the war will eventually end. Therefore this major crisis is also an opportunity to reprogram the entire ecosystem. We must seize this golden opportunity to unlock eternal harmony in the land of holy lands by implementing the following step by step roadmap for lasting peace in the Middle East:

Allow Israel to Decimate Hamas’ Operational Capacity. President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken have reiterated the US commitment to back Israel’s inherent right to defend itself. They were right to quickly green-light Israel’s stated goal of permanently defanging Hamas after what this terrorist organization masquerading as a political party did to Israelis and many foreigners including US citizens. Hamas is just one piece of many in the puzzle of Palestinian bureaucracy, and does not even enjoy majority support inside the Gaza Strip where it is headquartered. At best the loosely organized group and allied affiliates like Islamic Jihad formed a tyranny of the minority, and even that low baseline of backing has no doubt eroded in the last two weeks. This long-festering situation can no longer stand. There should be no quarter for anyone who is a member of Hamas unless they are in the act of returning hostages or surrendering. The IDF should be approved to take extraordinary measures such as hunting down and confronting in battle Hamas members on any corner of territory they are to be found, for as long as that takes- with one important caveat.

Protect Civilian Lives, and Set up Humanitarian Safe Passages and Safe Zones. The IDF has been replenished to record troop strength after its swift call-up of a whopping 360,000 reservists to active duty. This was the only move, and the IDF should be capable of defeating Hamas, but it has to be done the right way. That means taking extreme care amidst the fog of war to protect the 2.1 million civilians in Gaza throughout the process, not only for the sake of the Gazans but for Israel’s own prospects for future security and support. So far, Israel has stumbled at this with a surprising lack of care in its air campaign. Collateral damage numbers are skyrocketing. Errant or intentional strikes are leveling homes, refugee camps, hospitals, and the families inside or around them. With each passing day that dozens of Palestinian children are killed by airstrikes, Israel enrages the Arab Street and chips away at moral standing at home and around the world. That does not help an otherwise just cause. The actions of the IDF mirror past conflicts involving Israel and resurface bad memories. Civilian casualty figures have been unacceptably high throughout the prolific campaign of airstrikes being used to soften up Gaza before a projected ground invasion. Images of horror keep pouring out, and it’s not entirely fake news or Palestinian rockets, though there’s plenty of those in the mix too. Much of the collateral damage is being confirmed in real time by reliable international news sources and aid organizations on the ground. The current pace of civilian suffering and leveled infrastructure being wrought all over Gaza has already crossed a line, and I hope President Biden and his team have made this point exceedingly clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu and his generals. Choking off supplies of food, water, electricity, medications, and fuel into Gaza at a time of dire shortages impacting life safety was questionable. Demanding half the population of Gaza abandon their homes and flee South with no viable plan to provide the refugees with safe transportation corridors, food, shelter, or medical treatment was another cruel mistake by the Israeli government that deserved the international condemnation that followed. It’s not too late to make amends. Hundreds of humanitarian aid trucks need to be let in every day to address the shortages, not just the slow trickle that has taken place so far that’s not nearly enough according to reports from inside the Strip.

The prolific deaths and maiming of those Palestinians attempting to flee exactly as instructed are eroding Israel’s claims to being better than Hamas in real time. If the IDF closely follows their own stated doctrines, one would expect that civilian casualties could be much lower. From the ground the scene might appear just as barbaric to locals as what Hamas did in Israel, even if Israel never intentionally targets civilians as the enemy clearly did. Reports have emerged that the Gaza ground invasion is being delayed at US request to give humanitarian efforts and hostage negotiations time and space. I wish this is true. Americans must make sure Israelis are fully aware that help is not unconditional. The cause of the war may be just at this point, but the conduct on the front must be just as much so. If the IDF does not quickly start taking incredible pains to dramatically minimize civilian casualties, the Israeli government cannot expect the world to simply stand by. Both friends and foes will react according to their various agendas. It falls to the United States to wield the carrots and sticks in its arsenal and strictly negotiate the contours of war conduct with Israel. The reputation of the United States is very much on the line in this war too as a sponsor of Israel. The United States needs to step up its aid package for Gaza, make sure it gets through, and widely publicize this humanitarian assistance across the world so that people on the street hear about it. In return, as a reciprocal show of good faith, Palestinians and their allies must return all hostages unharmed, which seem to number around 200.

Prevent the War from Spreading. The largest pitfall of all is contagion. There are multiple new war fronts threatening to open up, which would benefit no one. Factions within Hezbollah to the North of Israel in Lebanon are itching to join the fight against Israel. Indeed Hezbollah militants have launched rockets and small raiding parties across the border, probing the perimeters, though these have not amounted to full-scale fighting. Nor has Hezbollah leadership declared all-out war on Israel yet. The risk would greatly increase with an IDF ground invasion into Gaza if news of more civilian casualties continues to stream out at current rates as it grinds on. This raises the stakes for Israel to protect the civilian population and also facilitate viable humanitarian provisions for them. It is hoped the substantial amount of US muscle being added to the Middle East region in the form of US Navy carrier strike groups, jets, and troops- all on high alert- will deter a widening of the conflict, with Hezbollah and their sponsors in Iran being the most likely suspects to join the fray first. Iran and Hezbollah have done plenty of chest-thumping in support of Hamas since October 7, but if Israel, the United States, and the Arab world can collectively deter them from the fight, the prospects for a contained war and a serious peace process will greatly increase.

Seek Out and Support Better Leaders. Where can be found the political will to build up rather than burn down? Where are the inspiring calls for peace hiding?

Hard to say. In my view the main reason why the Israel/Palestine question has never been resolved with, say, a viable two-state solution that has been talked about ad nauseam for decades with little real movement towards it is leadership, or a lack thereof. On both sides. A majority of Israelis and Palestinians would rather live in peace and prosperity but those who represent them today are never going to get them there. Mahmoud Abbas is a largely useless and unpopular leader of the Palestinian Authority, notably playing little to no role in the midst of the region’s gravest crisis in decades. He barely has any influence in the West Bank, let alone in Gaza. At his advanced age Abbas should step aside and allow for a younger and more dynamic leader to head the Palestinian Authority and turn it into a real player in the fight for peace and a competent government for a renewed Palestine. Hamas leaders meanwhile are little more than terrorists. Some of them live in the lap of luxury in exile in places like Qatar and rant fighting words for the cameras from decadent safe havens while their people starve back home in Gaza. For Israel’s part Netanyahu is a hawk who has done little over his many years in office to address the worsening plight of the Palestinian people, which in turn has made Israelis less safe as we just witnessed. In fact his record of aggressive policies and heavy-handed security tactics have doubtless fueled extremists on the other side. At home Netanyahu is alleged to be downright corrupt, and his bid to disfigure the judicial system is undemocratic. He is no good for either the Israelis or Palestinians, and his days in power are probably numbered. I am sympathetic to Bibi for losing his brother Jony in combat in Entebbe, which would shape anyone’s outlook on life, for I’ve never lost a brother to the enemy. But Bibi had his chance.

It’s time to try something new: leaders who are serious about peace and dialogue, rather than those in love with permanent conflict. The United States and others who care about building a lasting peace should leave no stone unturned to find and bolster these new and moderate voices once Hamas is finally unable to speak for the Palestinian people. There must be Palestinians who are willing to compromise with Israelis for worthy goals. Unfortunately these types of moderates have long been marginalized, drowned out by loud voices that prefer or even profit from a permanent state of tension and fear mongering that has defined the Israel-Palestine coexistence experiment from the very beginning.

Sign the Damn Abraham Accords. At least part of the reason Hamas timed their terror attacks for October 7 was to derail the painstaking progress being made towards peace accords and the gradual normalization of relations between Israel and neighboring Arab Gulf states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. In that endeavor Hamas was wildly successful. Negotiations have been set back by months, if not years, but they desperately need to get back on track no matter what horrors come out of the war. Normalization makes perfect sense for long term cooperation on economic, security, educational, cultural, and political fronts that will pay dividends for the entire region and the world. The 2023 Israel War threatens to negate years of work, which the United States government has helped along to its credit. It’s time to drag the entire Abraham accords across the finish line. It’s a great idea, it would benefit all participating parties, and it would set the table for lasting peace in the whole region, which includes containing Iran’s violent ambitions. This is how the terrorists lose.

But terrorists aren’t the only ones in the way. Too many voices in the Middle East are against the accords for the wrong reasons. The leaders with the choice to do the right thing need to muster the courage to ignore the naysayers. The United States should be prepared to sweeten the deals with juicy incentives, which it can afford to concede. Hawks, religious hardliners, and purveyors of hate inordinately focused on the wrongs of ancient history must be sidelined with conviction by the moderate Arab and Israeli leaders who understand the glorious upside for their own people of regional coalition building vs the stagnating status quo. The common people are not that different wherever you go in the world, the best lesson I learned from years of extensive travel. Arab nations talking frequently via official channels with Israel will be a very vital prerequisite for the best and most difficult part of the plan, which comes next.

Finally: The Two-State Solution. When all of the conditions above have been met, we can finally get down to business. There is only one prospect for lasting peace in the promised land, and that is the Palestinians finally having their own country, period. Meanwhile Israelis have earned the right to their own sovereign territory freed from the endless prospect of terror or foreign attack as well. It’s time for the world to recognize both peoples’ rights to exist unmolested and become part of the ultimate solution: the Two-state solution. Plenty of uneasy alternative arrangements have been tried and they’ve categorically failed for decade after agonizing decade. While Israel has blossomed into a splendid little economic engine and a democracy, flawed as it is, just across the walls surrounding Gaza and the West Bank is an alternate universe where the population lives in squalor. The Palestinian condition is defined by abject poverty, few jobs, low wages, dependency on foreign charity, and limited prospects for advancement or investment. In other words, an existence with no hope for many. Every Palestinian child has witnessed extreme violence landing upon themselves, family, and friends whether from local thugs or Israeli security forces. It should surprise no one that Palestinian territories are the world’s most fertile breeding ground for extremists and sociopaths. This vicious cycle must finally be broken.

A majority of the blame falls squarely on the Palestinians themselves for their depressing circumstances, but there is plenty of blame to go around. It is much easier to tear down than to build, and the Palestinian question has been a tear-down in agonizing slow motion by a shifty hodgepodge of movements. By participating in or condoning terrorism and spending precious external aid funds on weapons and terror tunnels instead of public works, civil institutions, and economic investment the political leadership in Gaza and the West Bank have subjected the people to gross injustice for far too long. Factions and sub-factions like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah, the PLO, the Palestinian Authority, and a wider alphabet soup of ineffective governance riddled by corruption and incompetence have turned the historically and culturally significant Palestine idea into a raging dumpster fire. Few in positions of power seem capable of stopping their contemporaries from poking the Israeli bear, which is bound to bite back every time with a vengeance. It was hoped by many like me that Yasser Arafat could be the man to break the wheel and guide the process toward Palestinian liberation, but he passed on without achieving the dream and nary a one has since has stepped up to carry the baton forward. A groundswell of internal support will be needed to lift up an entirely new crop of Palestinian leadership, but first the conditions for that environment need to be established with the world’s help, and America could play a big hand in that.

For their own good Palestinians need to rise up and meet the moment, and they should be given the chance. Before the transition to inaugurating a Palestinian state the territory first needs the rule of law, a functioning government, a sustainable economy, and a unified, disciplined security force focused on keeping the peace rather than gangsterism. Lacking these Israel and others would be too nervous to move forward. None of these internal institutional functions will be easy to administer considering the entrenched interests and checkered history of Palestinian organizations. Outsiders can help, but every foundational brick beneath standing up a civil society presents challenges that can only be solved by Palestinians amongst themselves. We can only hope a convincing defeat of Hamas militarily will convince them that it’s time to try something radically different. Ironically, if Hamas had chosen to fixate on good governance instead of terrorism, they would not find themselves in the existential bind now tightening around their necks. That pipe dream had been my hope when Hamas started winning elections and first came to power. It’s likely at least some members of Hamas somewhere inside the network probably cared about governing, but they were relentlessly marginalized in favor of other priorities. They hitched themselves to the wrong wagon.

Palestinians have their work cut out for them if they are serious enough about becoming a society striving for upward mobility. But the rest of the world has critical obligations as well. Much of Gaza has already been reduced to rubble (again) from airstrikes without an earnest ground campaign even started. Much more infrastructure demolition is inevitable. Again, this is an opportunity for rebirth. Israel, the United States, and foreign actors must commit to providing substantial financial and technical aid to rebuild Gaza and the West Bank after Hamas is removed and the dust has settled. The United States, in one of its finest hours, helped rebuild a Germany and a Japan both crushed by defeat and bombed to the stone age in World War II into the thriving democracies and allies that they are today, despite the tragic history and bad feelings. Palestine desperately needs investment in things like parks, schools, factories, farms, roads, bridges, housing, mass transit, and commercial centers. Most of this capital allocation could come from the ultra-rich billionaire royal families of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, the global Palestinian diaspora marching in Western and Arab capitals, and others who profess to care about the plight of their Palestinian cousins and fellow Muslims. The royals in particular are so unbelievably wealthy, not even including the massive fossil fuel reserves beneath their feet yet to be extracted, that money is no issue. It’s time for the Sunni Gulf states and the Palestinian diaspora to put their money where their mouth is, and if they do indeed desire peace in the region putting some real skin in the game is the best way to prove it. Civil society investments will hopefully be more enticing and productive than the Iranian funding funneled to Gaza for arms and militant training that brought this unfolding horror movie upon the Strip.

One bone of contention for the Two-state solution will be exactly how to draw the borders in light of concerns stemming from history, religion, security, and fairness. In my opinion there is no perfect way to do this, but the borders are the least of our problems. Roughly transferring the contours of Gaza and West Bank as they stand today makes sense to me though I am not familiar with the historic issues these borders present. Any progress toward a managed Palestinian liberation and independence would be light years ahead of where we stand today. Let the UN, OPEC, GCC, the United States, or other entities from the international diplomatic community play referee while Israel and Palestine duke this out. As for the Two-state timeline, the sooner the better. To be realistic we must allow enough time for the preconditions for serious Two-state solution negotiations to be met. Goals and deadlines are good to have though. I’d reckon 2026 is an attainable and reasonable timeframe to shoot for between all the parties involved assuming the war wraps up by late 2023 or early 2024.

IN CONCLUSION, this doesn’t need to be as hard as the commentators focused entirely on why peace plans will never work make it out to be. True, we may never get past the preconditions for peace in our lifetimes if the future rhymes with history. I’m idealistic, not stupid or naive. There are plenty of pitfalls along the way that could easily turn into dealbreakers. Perhaps the odds are stacked toward a permanent state of strife. That does not mean we can’t be optimistic and try for peace despite those long odds. It’s worth listing out a summary of what these preconditions are for those who would dare to fight for peace. The list forms the beginnings of a formal working agenda, and it can work. Again, it is my instinct that the United States will have to run this agenda from end to end over one thousand difficult meetings spanning over 3 or more years. With the political will of a united American people behind the US government roadmap for peace in the Middle East, nothing is impossible, and we should never stop trying. To recap:

1. The IDF is allowed to decisively eliminate Hamas’ capacity to pose a security threat to Israel, as long as that takes. Let’s say goodbye to the nihilists.
2. Israel implements painstaking measures to dramatically minimize civilian casualties in Gaza till the very last day of the war including the provision of safe zones where strikes and assaults will never occur. The international community must verify the nation’s conduct of war and report its findings accurately.
3. Sufficient amounts of humanitarian aid donated by the international community must be allowed to flow freely into Gaza to be securely and fairly disbursed in safe zones inside Gaza for as long as the war rages. Even better, surrounding nations should offer to take in limited numbers of Palestinian refugees till the war ends, at least women and children, though this scenario appears distant. Meanwhile ALL hostages must be returned unharmed as part of this deal.
4. Under no circumstances can the war spread to Lebanon, Syria, Iran or elsewhere through the actions of Hezbollah or otherwise. The UN, United States, and Mideast nations must work together to ensure the war is contained, combining military muscle and aggressive diplomacy as effective deterrents. President Biden has duly warned the usual suspects, and the Commander-in-Chief, Congress, and the American public must be prepared through the entirety of the war to activate US forces in the region as a last resort.
5. We expect Hamas leadership will be degraded when hostilities cease, creating an opening for better alternatives. By then it will also be high time for Benjamin Netanyahu, Mahmoud Abbas, and their aging cronies to be replaced wholesale by a fresh new crop of inspiring leaders and technocrats on both sides who are actually serious about governing, negotiating, and eradicating violence for the long haul. Religious zealotry and chauvinism must be deleted from all policy platforms. The old guard have failed their people for long enough. Perhaps there’s even opportunity for entirely new parties to rise from the ashes of the long and deadly war, riding on uncharted paradigms into a new Middle East.
6. Sign the damn Abraham Accords already. Not much love is lost between Hamas and most Mideast states with the notable exception of its patron Iran. With Hamas out of the way normalization might be easier to reach. Once frequent dialogue and cooperation take place between Israel and at least some previously hostile Arab states, most importantly the custodian of the holiest mosques in Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia, the odds of the next war breaking out in the region significantly diminish (I hope my hopes for MBS are not misplaced). The exchanges will provide all signatories openings in economic and other spheres, helping pull out the populations mired in the past to enjoy a new shared Mideast prosperity that will trickle all the way to Palestine.
7. Commence negotiating the Two-state solution as soon as possible. ASAP. With the help of the international community Israel must actively seek out and engage a cadre comprised of any reasonable Palestinian having any authority (who may or may not belong to the Palestinian Authority) with whom to restart a comprehensive dialogue postwar. The laser-like focus of this dialogue must be setting the stage for a Two-state solution, including creation of institutions, goodwill measures, fair mapping, and agreeable timelines. America, Europe, India, China, and Gulf states in particular can all donate resources to rebuild Gaza’s government, police, infrastructure and economy to kickstart the independent Palestine process and integrate the liberated state into global markets.

We are in the midst of a major crisis in the Middle East, and I’ll admit it’s hard to keep the faith that anything good could possibly result from the current state of affairs. But all is not lost. Every crisis is an opportunity to change the entire landscape for the better. Subject matter experts and the media breathlessly spend too much bandwidth on everything that is going wrong, or could go wrong. Same goes for social media, a cesspool on this topic I’ve elected to avoid. It’s about time we spent our time more productively, thinking about how everything could actually go right if we collectively have the guts, imagination, and spirit to make the world markedly better in our time. At least that’s how I’ve decided to approach this crisis.

To end, I’ll reiterate here my admiration for Mahatma Gandhi, who accomplished feats just as difficult as the daunting ones proposed here, if not more so. He did it entirely peacefully. His non-violent example has inspired me to draft this roadmap for Middle East peace, rather than just throw my hands up in helpless despair and admit defeat. We can do this.